Week 2 NFL Survivor Recap (2026): The Most-Picked Team Lost Again
Top pick San Francisco won by 22. Alternative Baltimore and save-your-studs Tampa Bay both lost as 77 percent favorites.
September 18, 2026 · Updated September 22, 2026
All sixteen Week 2 games are final, and for the second week running the most-picked team in survivor pools lost. Tampa Bay, priced at 77 percent at our refresh on September 15 and carrying 29.6 percent of entries on SurvivorGrid’s consensus board, lost 23-19 at home to Cleveland. Baltimore, at the same 77 percent, lost 24-17 to New Orleans, and the Chargers lost at home again. San Francisco, the other team near 30 percent of the field, won by 22, and the Rams closed the week Monday night with a 28-6 win over the Giants.
Thursday night
Buffalo beat Detroit 41-31 at home to open Week 2. The Bills were priced at 64 percent at our refresh on September 15, laying four and a half, so the favorite won and there is no upset to report. The two teams combined for 72 points, and the ten-point margin landed outside the number.
The survivor lens is short, because the field mostly stayed out of this game. SurvivorGrid, which averages pick distribution across Yahoo, ESPN and other public pools, had 1.6 percent of Week 2 entries on Buffalo as of Friday morning, and Detroit did not register as a meaningful share. For comparison, the same board had Tampa Bay at 29.7 percent, San Francisco at 29.0, Philadelphia at 12.4 and Baltimore at 7.2, and all four of those teams play on Sunday.
The one structural note is timing. Any pool that locks at the first kickoff of the week locked at 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, before Friday’s injury reports existed, which means every pick in those pools was made without them.
Sunday
Fourteen games were played Sunday, and five of them went to the team the market had as the underdog, so favorites went 9-5 on the day. Every price below is the grid’s win probability at our refresh on September 15. Pick shares are from SurvivorGrid’s consensus board, which pools Yahoo, ESPN and other public contests, as of Monday morning; individual pools will differ.
The upsets, ranked by the loser’s price
- Cleveland 23, Tampa Bay 19. The Buccaneers were 77 percent at home, laying eight and a half, and lost by four. This was the most expensive result of the week for the survivor field: 29.6 percent of consensus entries were on Tampa Bay, the largest share of any team. In Circa Survivor, VegasInsider reported 6,061 entries on the Buccaneers, out of roughly 16,978 that entered the week alive.
- New Orleans 24, Baltimore 17. The Ravens were also 77 percent at home at the same eight and a half, and lost by seven. SurvivorGrid had 7.1 percent of entries on Baltimore, and VegasInsider counted 835 Circa entries.
- Las Vegas 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14. The Chargers were 72 percent at home and lost there for the second straight week, by the same 26-14 score as their Week 1 loss to Arizona. SurvivorGrid had them at 2.9 percent, while VegasInsider counted 1,357 Circa entries, the third-largest group in that contest this week.
- Minnesota 9, Chicago 3. The Bears were 67 percent at home and scored three points in the lowest-scoring game of the week. SurvivorGrid had 1.5 percent of entries on Chicago.
- Cincinnati 20, Houston 6. The Texans were 57 percent, a three-point home favorite, and lost by 14. Almost nobody was exposed: 0.4 percent.
Add those five losers together and they held about 41 percent of SurvivorGrid’s consensus distribution for the week.
The favorites that held
San Francisco beat Miami 35-13. The 49ers were 87 percent, the highest price on the board, and carried 29.4 percent of consensus entries, a hair under Tampa Bay. The two most-picked teams of the week were priced ten points apart and owned in almost identical shares, and they split: one won by 22, the other lost by four. VegasInsider counted 6,741 Circa entries on San Francisco, the only team in that contest with more than Tampa Bay.
Philadelphia, the third-most-picked team at 12.5 percent, won 24-20 at Tennessee. The Eagles were 72 percent on the road and won by four, inside the seven-point number. Kansas City, at 73 percent and 2.9 percent of entries, beat Indianapolis 33-30 on Sunday night. Both paid their pickers, and both were closer than their prices.
The rest of the favorites won with room to spare. Seattle was 66 percent at Arizona and won 31-7. Dallas was 66 percent at home and beat Washington 37-20. New England was 67 percent and beat Pittsburgh 20-3. Green Bay was 64 percent on the road and won 20-17 against the Jets. Denver was 55 percent and beat Jacksonville 20-13. Carolina, the narrowest favorite on the board at 53 percent on the road, beat Atlanta 34-3.
For the survivor field, the shape of Sunday was simple. Close to 60 percent of consensus entries sat on two teams, San Francisco and Tampa Bay, and which of those two an entry chose decided most of its week.
Monday night
The Rams beat the Giants 28-6 at home to close Week 2. Los Angeles was priced at 75 percent at our refresh on September 15, laying seven, and won by 22, so the favorite won and there is no upset to report. That price was the fourth-widest on the Week 2 board, behind San Francisco at 87 percent and the Tampa Bay and Baltimore pair at 77.
The survivor lens is short again, because very few entries were exposed. SurvivorGrid’s consensus board had 1.5 percent of Week 2 entries on the Rams, with its Yahoo column at 0.7 percent, and the Giants barely registered at 0.2 percent. Nothing that happened Monday night changed the shape of the week, which was settled on Sunday afternoon.
The one structural note is timing, the mirror image of Thursday’s. The Rams were the last pick available in Week 2, so an entry that held its pick until Monday had every Sunday result in hand, including the Tampa Bay and Baltimore losses, before its game kicked off. That only helps in pools that lock each game at its own kickoff. In a pool that locks at the first game of the week, Monday night is just another pick made on Thursday.
How our picks did
One out of three. Our Week 2 picks article made San Francisco the top pick, and the 49ers beat Miami 35-13 as 87 percent favorites. It named Baltimore as the alternative, and the Ravens lost 24-17 to New Orleans as 77 percent favorites. It named Tampa Bay as the save-your-studs play, and the Buccaneers lost 23-19 to Cleveland at the same 77 percent.
The Tampa Bay miss is the one that matters. The argument was that the Bucs cost less to spend than San Francisco for the same safety as Baltimore, and a reader who followed it to keep the 49ers for later is out of most pools this morning. The future-value reasoning only pays off if the entry survives the week, and this one did not. The article also undercut itself: it offered Baltimore as the alternative, then told readers a few paragraphs later to leave Baltimore alone for December. Both of the teams it pointed to as alternatives lost.
The avoid list did no damage and did not save anyone either. Seattle, the game we said to skip, won 31-7. Of the three games we called coin flips, the favorite won two (Carolina and Denver) and lost one (Houston).
On the trap watch, the ownership concentration we flagged on San Francisco did not bite, because San Francisco won. The concentration that did bite was on Tampa Bay, which the article did not flag and in fact recommended. Of the three games with quarterback questions, Chicago lost as a 67 percent favorite and Seattle and Carolina won. The Thursday lock-timing note resolved with Buffalo winning. Monday night’s Rams game was not one of our recommendations, and the Rams won it 28-6.
What this week teaches
Two 77 percent favorites losing on the same afternoon is not rare enough to ignore. Each one loses about 23 percent of the time. Treated as independent, both losing works out to about one week in twenty, and an 18-week season has plenty of weeks. The price told you the risk on each team before kickoff, and it was the same price. The expected value guide covers how to weigh a number like 77 percent against a wider one when the wider one costs you a better team.
Saving a strong team only has value if the entry is still alive to use it. Tampa Bay and San Francisco were owned almost equally, and the difference between them was ten points of win probability traded for future flexibility. Sometimes that trade is right. It is a trade, though, not a free upgrade, and this week collected the cost. The complete strategy guide works through when spending a premium team early is the better play.
Ownership concentration cuts both ways, and you cannot know which way in advance. Roughly 30 percent of the field was on each of two teams. One won and one lost, and a pool’s week was decided mostly by that split. Being on the same team as a big share of your pool means you gain nothing when it wins and go out with company when it loses, which is why the trap games piece treats concentration as a structural risk rather than a prediction.
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