Survivor Caddy

NFL Survivor Grid 2026

Market-implied win probability · last refreshed September 15, 2026 · Week 1 played so far, prices frozen

Every NFL team, every week of the 2026 regular season, with the betting market's read on how likely that team is to win. Survivor pools are won by planning ahead, and planning ahead means seeing the whole board at once instead of one Sunday at a time.

How to read the grid

Each cell is one team's chance of winning that week's game. The second line is the opponent and that team's point spread: @ for a road game, vs for a home game, PK for a pick-em. Greener cells are the comfortable spots, redder cells are games you would rather not stake a season on, and BYE means the team is idle and cannot be picked that week.

Two kinds of number share the board. Weeks that have not been played yet show the price the market is quoting right now, and it will keep moving. Weeks that have already been played show the last price recorded before those games kicked off. The market stops quoting a game the moment it starts, so nothing about those cells will ever change again. Played cells are shaded and hatched, with a small corner marker. They are a record of what the market expected going in, not a scoreboard: the grid does not show who actually won.

The scan you want is horizontal, not vertical. Pick a team you like, read across its row, and find the week where it is cheapest to spend.

  • 85%+
  • 75–84%
  • 65–74%
  • 55–64%
  • 45–54%
  • 35–44%
  • 25–34%
  • Under 25%

Hatched cells are games already played. Their price is frozen at what the market said before kickoff, not a current number.

2026 NFL survivor grid: win probability by team and week, derived from DraftKings moneylines. Last refreshed September 15, 2026. Week 1 played so far; those cells show the last price before kickoff and no longer change.
Team
ARIArizona Cardinals20%@LAC +10, played, price frozen before kickoff34%vs SEA +4.517%@SF +11.527%@NYG +723%vs DET +8.515%@LAR +13.524%vs DEN +7.519%@DAL +10.515%@SEA +13.521%vs LAR +10.518%@KC +11.534%vs WSH +4.523%vs PHI +8.5BYE50%vs NYJ -1.532%@NO +5.546%vs LV +1.523%vs SF +8.5
ATLAtlanta Falcons38%@PIT +3.5, played, price frozen before kickoff47%vs CAR +1.524%@GB +7.545%@NO +2.536%vs BAL +4.542%vs CHI +333%vs SF +4.534%@TB +4.533%vs CIN +5.536%vs KC +4.5BYE34%@MIN +4.538%vs DET +3.547%@CLE +1.538%@WSH +3.547%vs TB +1.553%vs NO -1.545%@CAR +2.5
BALBaltimore Ravens61%@IND -3.5, played, price frozen before kickoff77%vs NO -8.555%@DAL -2.576%vs TEN -8.564%@ATL -4.569%@CLE -6.562%vs CIN -3.545%@BUF +2.564%vs JAX -4.562%vs LAC -3.566%@CAR -4.547%@HOU +1.5BYE69%vs TB -657%@PIT -2.577%vs CLE -1045%@CIN +2.566%vs PIT -5.5
BUFBuffalo Bills51%@HOU -1.5, played, price frozen before kickoff64%vs DET -4.559%vs LAC -359%vs NE -340%@LAR +370%@LV -6.5BYE55%vs BAL -2.561%@MIN -374%@NYJ -783%vs MIA -11.557%vs KC -2.547%@NE +1.547%@GB +1.562%vs CHI -3.554%@DEN -1.576%@MIA -7.579%vs NYJ -10
CARCarolina Panthers42%vs CHI +3, played, price frozen before kickoff53%@ATL -1.553%@CLE -1.541%vs DET +3BYE29%@PHI +6.547%vs TB +1.526%@GB +741%vs DEN +348%@NO +1.534%vs BAL +4.536%@TB +3.536%@MIN +3.555%vs NO -2.543%vs CIN +2.537%@PIT +3.532%vs SEA +5.555%vs ATL -2.5
CHIChicago Bears58%@CAR -3, played, price frozen before kickoff67%vs MIN -5.552%vs PHI -1.577%vs NYJ -8.540%@GB +358%@ATL -353%vs NE -1.534%@SEA +4.564%vs TB -3.5BYE71%vs NO -6.544%@DET +2.558%vs JAX -369%@MIA -5.538%@BUF +3.552%vs GB -1.553%vs DET -1.547%@MIN +1.5
CINCincinnati Bengals64%vs TB -3.5, played, price frozen before kickoff43%@HOU +353%@PIT -1.555%vs JAX -2.570%@MIA -6BYE38%@BAL +3.571%vs TEN -6.567%@ATL -5.564%vs PIT -3.553%@WSH -1.571%vs NO -6.566%@CLE -4.553%vs KC -1.557%@CAR -2.553%@IND -1.555%vs BAL -2.575%vs CLE -7.5
CLECleveland Browns22%@JAX +8.5, played, price frozen before kickoff23%@TB +8.547%vs CAR +1.545%vs PIT +2.546%@NYJ +1.531%vs BAL +6.545%@TEN +2.531%@PIT +637%@NO +3.536%vs HOU +4.5BYE53%vs LV -1.534%vs CIN +4.553%vs ATL -1.536%@NYG +4.523%@BAL +1045%vs IND +2.525%@CIN +7.5
DALDallas Cowboys59%@NYG -3, played, price frozen before kickoff66%vs WSH -3.545%vs BAL +2.545%@HOU +2.564%vs TB -3.540%@GB +341%@PHI +381%vs ARI -10.553%@IND -1.552%vs SF -1.571%vs TEN -6.553%vs PHI -1.534%@SEA +4.5BYE32%@LAR +659%vs JAX -366%vs NYG -4.553%@WSH -1.5
DENDenver Broncos43%@KC +3, played, price frozen before kickoff55%vs JAX -2.542%vs LAR +344%@SF +2.544%@LAC +2.546%vs SEA +1.576%@ARI -7.553%vs KC -1.559%@CAR -3BYE74%vs LV -7.553%@PIT -1.579%vs MIA -9.567%@NYJ -5.564%@LV -4.546%vs BUF +1.545%@NE +2.553%vs LAC -1.5
DETDetroit Lions72%vs NO -7, played, price frozen before kickoff36%@BUF +4.577%vs NYJ -9.559%@CAR -377%@ARI -8.5BYE56%vs GB -2.566%vs MIN -4.571%@MIA -6.553%vs NE -1.566%vs TB -4.556%vs CHI -2.562%@ATL -3.575%vs TEN -7.553%@MIN -1.564%vs NYG -4.547%@CHI +1.545%@GB +2.5
GBGreen Bay Packers47%@MIN +1.5, played, price frozen before kickoff64%@NYJ -4.576%vs ATL -7.553%@TB -1.560%vs CHI -360%vs DAL -344%@DET +2.574%vs CAR -747%@NE +1.568%vs MIN -4.5BYE34%@LAR +4.566%@NO -4.553%vs BUF -1.583%vs MIA -10.548%@CHI +1.555%vs HOU -2.555%vs DET -2.5
HOUHouston Texans49%vs BUF +1.5, played, price frozen before kickoff57%vs CIN -353%@IND -1.555%vs DAL -2.562%@TEN -3.550%@JAX +1.568%vs NYG -5.5BYE45%@LAC +2.564%@CLE -4.568%vs IND -5.553%vs BAL -1.553%@PIT -1.553%@WSH -1.558%vs JAX -345%@PHI +2.545%@GB +2.572%vs TEN -7
INDIndianapolis Colts39%vs BAL +3.5, played, price frozen before kickoff27%@KC +6.547%vs HOU +1.548%@WSH +1.544%@PIT +2.563%vs TEN -3.544%@MIN +2.534%@JAX +4.547%vs DAL +1.572%vs MIA -6.532%@HOU +5.555%vs NYG -2.5BYE31%@PHI +5.553%@TEN -1.547%vs CIN +1.555%@CLE -2.553%vs JAX -1.5
JAXJacksonville Jaguars78%vs CLE -8.5, played, price frozen before kickoff45%@DEN +2.552%vs NE -1.545%@CIN +2.547%vs PHI +1.550%vs HOU -1.5BYE66%vs IND -4.536%@BAL +4.555%@TEN -2.553%@NYG -1.568%vs TEN -5.542%@CHI +359%vs PIT -342%@HOU +341%@DAL +362%vs WSH -3.547%@IND +1.5
KCKansas City Chiefs57%vs DEN -3, played, price frozen before kickoff73%vs IND -6.577%@MIA -7.567%@LV -5.5BYE56%vs LAC -2.540%@SEA +347%@DEN +1.578%vs NYJ -9.564%@ATL -4.582%vs ARI -11.543%@BUF +2.536%@LAR +3.547%@CIN +1.556%vs NE -2.558%vs SF -347%@LAC +1.576%vs LV -8.5
LVLas Vegas Raiders62%vs MIA -3.5, played, price frozen before kickoff28%@LAC +738%@NO +3.533%vs KC +5.523%@NE +8.530%vs BUF +6.526%vs LAR +7.547%@NYJ +1.522%@SF +8.527%vs SEA +726%@DEN +7.547%@CLE +1.5BYE34%vs LAC +5.536%vs DEN +4.553%vs TEN -1.554%@ARI -1.524%@KC +8.5
LACLos Angeles Chargers80%vs ARI -10, played, price frozen before kickoff72%vs LV -741%@BUF +339%@SEA +356%vs DEN -2.544%@KC +2.5BYE36%@LAR +4.555%vs HOU -2.538%@BAL +3.578%vs NYJ -9.553%vs NE -1.555%@TB -2.566%@LV -5.556%vs SF -2.576%@MIA -753%vs KC -1.547%@DEN +1.5
LARLos Angeles Rams62%vs SF -3.5, played, price frozen before kickoff75%vs NYG -758%@DEN -353%@PHI -1.560%vs BUF -385%vs ARI -13.574%@LV -7.564%vs LAC -4.566%@WSH -5.579%@ARI -10.5BYE66%vs GB -4.564%vs KC -3.554%@SF -1.568%vs DAL -646%@SEA +1.564%@TB -4.559%vs SEA -3
MIAMiami Dolphins38%@LV +3.5, played, price frozen before kickoff13%@SF +13.523%vs KC +7.523%@MIN +7.530%vs CIN +6BYE44%@NYJ +2.525%vs NE +729%vs DET +6.528%@IND +6.517%@BUF +11.553%vs NYJ -1.521%@DEN +9.531%vs CHI +5.517%@GB +10.524%vs LAC +724%vs BUF +7.518%@NE +10.5
MINMinnesota Vikings53%vs GB -1.5, played, price frozen before kickoff33%@CHI +5.546%@TB +1.577%vs MIA -7.553%@NO -1.5BYE56%vs IND -2.534%@DET +4.539%vs BUF +332%@GB +4.537%@SF +3.566%vs ATL -4.564%vs CAR -3.534%@NE +4.547%vs DET +1.555%vs WSH -2.562%@NYJ -3.553%vs CHI -1.5
NENew England Patriots40%@SEA +3, played, price frozen before kickoff67%vs PIT -5.548%@JAX +1.541%@BUF +377%vs LV -8.578%vs NYJ -9.547%@CHI +1.575%@MIA -753%vs GB -1.547%@DET +1.5BYE47%@LAC +1.553%vs BUF -1.566%vs MIN -4.544%@KC +2.570%@NYJ -6.555%vs DEN -2.582%vs MIA -10.5
NONew Orleans Saints28%@DET +7, played, price frozen before kickoff23%@BAL +8.562%vs LV -3.555%vs ATL -2.547%vs MIN +1.544%@NYG +2.544%vs PIT +2.5BYE63%vs CLE -3.552%vs CAR -1.529%@CHI +6.529%@CIN +6.534%vs GB +4.545%@CAR +2.536%@TB +3.568%vs ARI -5.547%@ATL +1.547%vs TB +1.5
NYGNew York Giants41%vs DAL +3, played, price frozen before kickoff25%@LAR +760%vs TEN -373%vs ARI -746%@WSH +2.556%vs NO -2.532%@HOU +5.5BYE32%@PHI +5.553%vs WSH -1.547%vs JAX +1.545%@IND +2.540%vs SF +324%@SEA +7.564%vs CLE -4.536%@DET +4.534%@DAL +4.541%vs PHI +3
NYJNew York Jets47%@TEN +1.5, played, price frozen before kickoff36%vs GB +4.523%@DET +9.523%@CHI +8.554%vs CLE -1.522%@NE +9.556%vs MIA -2.553%vs LV -1.522%@KC +9.526%vs BUF +722%@LAC +9.547%@MIA +1.5BYE33%vs DEN +5.550%@ARI +1.530%vs NE +6.538%vs MIN +3.521%@BUF +10
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles66%vs WSH -5.5, played, price frozen before kickoff72%@TEN -748%@CHI +1.547%vs LAR +1.553%@JAX -1.571%vs CAR -6.559%vs DAL -353%@WSH -1.568%vs NYG -5.5BYE68%vs PIT -5.547%@DAL +1.577%@ARI -8.569%vs IND -5.553%vs SEA -1.555%vs HOU -2.547%@SF +1.559%@NYG -3
PITPittsburgh Steelers62%vs ATL -3.5, played, price frozen before kickoff33%@NE +5.547%vs CIN +1.555%@CLE -2.556%vs IND -2.547%@TB +1.556%@NO -2.569%vs CLE -6BYE36%@CIN +3.532%@PHI +5.547%vs DEN +1.547%vs HOU +1.541%@JAX +343%vs BAL +2.563%vs CAR -3.553%@TEN -1.534%@BAL +5.5
SFSan Francisco 49ers38%@LAR +3.5, played, price frozen before kickoff87%vs MIA -13.583%vs ARI -11.556%vs DEN -2.536%@SEA +3.569%vs WSH -5.567%@ATL -4.5BYE78%vs LV -8.548%@DAL +1.563%vs MIN -3.550%vs SEA +1.560%@NYG -346%vs LAR +1.544%@LAC +2.542%@KC +353%vs PHI -1.577%@ARI -8.5
SEASeattle Seahawks60%vs NE -3, played, price frozen before kickoff66%@ARI -4.562%@WSH -3.561%vs LAC -364%vs SF -3.554%@DEN -1.560%vs KC -366%vs CHI -4.585%vs ARI -13.573%@LV -7BYE50%@SF -1.566%vs DAL -4.576%vs NYG -7.547%@PHI +1.554%vs LAR -1.568%@CAR -5.541%@LAR +3
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers36%@CIN +3.5, played, price frozen before kickoff77%vs CLE -8.554%vs MIN -1.547%vs GB +1.536%@DAL +3.553%vs PIT -1.553%@CAR -1.566%vs ATL -4.536%@CHI +3.5BYE34%@DET +4.564%vs CAR -3.545%vs LAC +2.531%@BAL +664%vs NO -3.553%@ATL -1.536%vs LAR +4.553%@NO -1.5
TENTennessee Titans53%vs NYJ -1.5, played, price frozen before kickoff28%vs PHI +740%@NYG +324%@BAL +8.538%vs HOU +3.537%@IND +3.555%vs CLE -2.529%@CIN +6.5BYE45%vs JAX +2.529%@DAL +6.532%@JAX +5.547%vs WSH +1.525%@DET +7.547%vs IND +1.547%@LV +1.547%vs PIT +1.528%@HOU +7
WSHWashington Commanders34%@PHI +5.5, played, price frozen before kickoff34%@DAL +3.538%vs SEA +3.552%vs IND -1.554%vs NYG -2.531%@SF +5.5BYE47%vs PHI +1.534%vs LAR +5.547%@NYG +1.547%vs CIN +1.566%@ARI -4.553%@TEN -1.547%vs HOU +1.562%vs ATL -3.545%@MIN +2.538%@JAX +3.547%vs DAL +1.5

Scroll the grid sideways for later weeks. Team names and week numbers stay pinned as you go.

Where the numbers come from

These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts of our own. For each game we take the DraftKings moneyline published through ESPN, convert both sides to an implied probability, then scale the pair so they add up to exactly 100 percent. That last step removes the sportsbook's margin, which is what makes the two numbers comparable across games.

Once the season is under way there is no single snapshot date for the whole board, and there cannot be. The grid is refreshed weekly, and each refresh does two different things:

The arithmetic is the same for both; only the vintage of the price differs.

The arithmetic, in full. Say a book prices a game at −205 on the favorite and +170 on the underdog:

  1. The negative moneyline of −205 implies 205 ÷ (205 + 100) = 67.2 percent.
  2. The positive moneyline of +170 implies 100 ÷ (170 + 100) = 37.0 percent.
  3. Those sum to 104.2 percent. The extra 4.2 points are the book's margin, so each side is divided by 104.2 percent to make them sum to 100.
  4. The result is 64 percent and 36 percent, one number for each side.

Cells show whole numbers, so we round the favorite and take the underdog as 100 minus that. Every matchup on the grid sums to exactly 100.

Those same three steps, run on the price for Seattle against New England in Week 1, are what put 60 percent and 40 percent in the grid above.

Nothing else is layered on top. No adjustments, no opinions, no weighting. If you want to check any cell yourself, look up the moneyline and run the same three steps.

What the grid does not tell you

Win probability is only half of a survivor decision. The other half is cost: spending a strong team in Week 2 means you cannot use it in Week 14, and picking the same heavy favorite as most of your pool wins you nothing when it holds. The complete strategy guide covers how to trade those off, and the expected value guide gets into when a slightly riskier pick is worth more than the chalk.

Weeks that have not been played are priced on look-ahead numbers, which are thinner than current-week lines and will move on injuries, trades, and results. Treat the back half of the season as a planning sketch, not a settled board. It also does not tell you what happened: played weeks keep their pre-kickoff price and are never marked won or lost. This page was last refreshed September 15, 2026.

Source and disclaimer

Odds: DraftKings moneylines, retrieved through ESPN's public NFL scoreboard. Survivor Caddy is not affiliated with DraftKings, ESPN, or the NFL. Survivor Caddy is an independent planning tool. It does not host pools or handle wagers. For entertainment purposes; verify lines at your sportsbook before you submit a pick.

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