Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Picks (2026): Minnesota or Baltimore, and What the Choice Costs

September 29, 2026

Three weeks in, the pattern has held: the survivor field’s most popular pick lost in Week 1 and Week 2, and in Week 3 the chalk finally survived while the second tier took the damage. Kansas City, carrying about 40 percent of consensus entries, won by 14, and Seattle, the second-most popular pick, lost at Washington. The Week 3 recap has the full accounting, including a Thursday upset in Green Bay that locked many pools before Sunday.

This week the board narrows to two teams, and the choice between them is less about who wins Sunday than about what you want left in December.

All numbers below are as of Tuesday, September 29, with lines taken from Monday’s market. Several of them depend on quarterback news that will not settle until later in the week.

The quick verdict

• Top pick: Minnesota at home against Miami. The Vikings are laying 10, at roughly -625 to -700 on the moneyline, about an 83 to 84 percent implied chance. Minnesota is 3-0 and Miami is 0-3 and just lost its best offensive player for the season.
• Alternative: Baltimore at home against Tennessee, laying 11.5 at about -700 to -750, roughly 84 to 85 percent implied. It is the slightly better price and the right call in a small pool.
• Save your studs: the Vikings pick already is one, since it keeps the Ravens in your pocket. If you have spent both, Seattle at home against the Chargers (about 73 percent) is the next-cleanest number.
• Avoid: Thursday’s Steelers at Browns and everything inside a field goal.

The Week 4 slate

Sixteen games, no byes. One Sunday game is in London.

The wide two

• Titans at Ravens: Baltimore -11.5, about -700 to -750
• Dolphins at Vikings: Minnesota -10, about -625 to -700

The 6.5 to 7 tier

• Patriots at Bills: Buffalo -6.5 to -7, about -310
• Chargers at Seahawks: Seattle -6.5, about -310

The 3.5 to 5.5 tier

• Chiefs at Raiders: Kansas City -5.5, about -225 to -240
• Packers at Buccaneers: Green Bay -3.5, about -185 to -190
• Lions at Panthers (Sunday night): Detroit -3.5, about -180 to -190
• Colts vs. Commanders (London, 9:30 a.m. ET): Indianapolis -3 to -3.5, about -165 to -180

Field goal or less

• Jets at Bears: Chicago -2.5 to -3, about -155 to -160
• Broncos at 49ers: San Francisco -2.5 to -3, about -155 to -160
• Steelers at Browns (Thursday night): Pittsburgh -2.5, about -150
• Jaguars at Bengals: Cincinnati -2.5, about -135 to -150
• Cowboys at Texans: Houston -2.5, about -135 to -150
• Falcons at Saints (Monday night): New Orleans -2.5, about -155
• Rams at Eagles: Los Angeles -1.5 to -2.5, about -130
• Cardinals at Giants: Arizona -1 to -1.5, about -115

Why Minnesota over Baltimore

On price alone, these two are close to a tie. Baltimore’s number is a shade wider, but the gap is a point or so of implied probability, well inside the difference between one sportsbook and the next.

The case for the Vikings is about the rest of the season. Several published look-ahead analyses this week make the same observation: Minnesota does not appear to have a later spot priced as wide as this one, while Baltimore does. Look-ahead lines move, and a team’s schedule in December can look very different by then, but the logic is the one worked through in the expected value guide: a good team is worth the most on the week it is laying the most, and for the Vikings this looks like that week.

The matchup supports it. Miami is 0-3, with losses by 14, 22 and 14, and De’Von Achane tore his ACL in the Week 3 loss to Kansas City, ending his season. Minnesota, meanwhile, has won three straight with a defense one Yahoo preview ranked first in the league in EPA per play allowed. Kyler Murray is healthy after missing time with a concussion early in the season.

The one open item is Justin Jefferson, listed as questionable with an ankle sprain as of Monday. Reports said the imaging was good. It matters less to a 10-point line than a quarterback would, but check Friday’s report.

When to take Baltimore instead

The Ravens are 2-1, and Tennessee is 0-3 and averaging about 12 points a game, among the lowest totals in the league. If your pool is small, or you are several entries deep with most of them already spent on Minnesota, take the wider number and do not overthink it. The complete strategy guide covers why smaller pools reward simply maximizing this week’s odds.

Baltimore’s Week 2 loss also means most entries still alive have not used the Ravens, which is part of why both teams are about to be heavily owned.

The rest of the board

Buffalo and Seattle, both around 73 percent, are the next tier. Buffalo’s is a division game, and several look-ahead boards show better Bills spots later on. Seattle is the more reasonable spend if you need a third option, though the Chargers, 0-3 as of this week, are still priced at +250 rather than as a long shot.

Kansas City at Las Vegas, around 66 percent, matters mostly as a reminder: about 40 percent of consensus entries spent the Chiefs last week, so few pools will see them here.

Trap watch

Applying the framework from our look at trap games, here are Week 4’s structural risks, worst first. None of these is a prediction that a team will play badly.

• Ownership concentration on two teams. One early public tracker had Baltimore at about 35 percent of Week 4 picks and Minnesota at about 28 as of Monday afternoon. If either loses, a large slice of your pool goes with it; if both win, you gain nothing on anyone who took them. Splitting entries between the two is a reasonable hedge if you run several.
• Quarterback and injury news still moving lines. Tampa Bay will be without Baker Mayfield for about three weeks after he dislocated his right thumb, with Jalon Daniels expected to start. Washington says Jayden Daniels will return to practice this week, though his availability in London is uncertain. Chicago is starting Tyson Bagent with Caleb Williams out. Each of those numbers can shift after your pool locks.
• Thursday’s Steelers at Browns, and the early London kickoff. Both teams are 2-1 and the line is 2.5, so it is not a survivor candidate on price. The structural point is timing: a first-kickoff pool freezes every pick Thursday night, and in game-by-game pools the Colts and Commanders lock at 9:30 a.m. Sunday, before the day’s inactive lists for the later games.

The Week 4 read

Two teams stand clear of the field, and most of your pool will be on one of them. Minnesota is our lean because it spends the team with less left to offer later. Baltimore is a perfectly sound pick if this week’s odds are all you care about. Either way, know which one you are keeping.

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