Week 6 NFL Survivor Pool Picks (2026): The Rams Lead a Four-Bye Week
October 13, 2026
Week 5 took the most popular pick in the pool out on Thursday night, when Tampa Bay beat Dallas 24–16 with about 45 percent of consensus entries on the Cowboys. Sunday mostly held, and Monday night ended with Buffalo beating the Rams 37–34 in overtime. The Week 5 recap has the full accounting.
Week 6 is a four-bye week: Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota are off, the board is 14 games, and the top of it is as lopsided as any week this season. All numbers below are as of Tuesday morning, October 13, and a few depend on quarterback news that has not arrived yet.
The quick verdict
- Top pick: Los Angeles Rams at home against Arizona. The Rams are -12.5 to -13.5 depending on the book, roughly -900 on the moneyline. Public win probability models have them between 84 and 90 percent, and the next-widest favorite trails by eight to ten points depending on the model.
- Alternative: New England at home against the Jets. About -7 to -7.5, roughly -325 to -350. The second tier is crowded, and the Patriots are the best of it on price with a healthy quarterback.
- Save your studs: Indianapolis against Tennessee. About -7, roughly -325, around 70 percent on the more conservative models. The Colts have the least future value of anyone in the second tier, which makes them the cheapest team to spend.
- Avoid: Kansas City unless you are in a very small pool, Baltimore until Lamar Jackson’s status is settled, Seattle on Thursday, and every game priced inside a field goal.
The Week 6 slate
Fourteen games. Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota are on bye.
The top of the board
- Cardinals at Rams: Los Angeles -12.5 to -13.5, about -900
- Chargers at Chiefs: Kansas City -8.5, about -440
- Jets at Patriots: New England -7 to -7.5, about -325 to -350
- Commanders at 49ers (Monday night): San Francisco -7.5, about -400
- Titans at Colts: Indianapolis -7, about -325 to -330
- Bills at Raiders: Buffalo -6, about -275
The 3 to 5.5 tier
- Ravens at Browns: Baltimore -3.5 to -4.5, about -235
- Bears at Falcons: Chicago -3, about -178
- Seahawks at Broncos (Thursday night): Seattle -3, about -155
- Steelers at Buccaneers: Pittsburgh -3, about -152
Field goal or less
- Texans vs. Jaguars (London, 9:30 a.m. ET): Jacksonville -2.5, about -146
- Cowboys at Packers (Sunday night): Green Bay -1.5, about -114
- Panthers at Eagles: Philadelphia -1.5, about -115
- Saints at Giants: New Orleans -1, about -112
Why the Rams
Arizona is 1-4, has lost four straight, and gave up 45 points to Detroit last week. Jacoby Brissett remains the starter, and the Cardinals say they have no plans to change that. Los Angeles is 2-3, which looks worse than it is: Matthew Stafford threw for 383 yards Monday night and Puka Nacua caught 17 passes. Tuesday’s Rams report listed nothing new, and the only names on it, Myles Garrett and Terrance Ferguson, were already on injured reserve.
The one honest knock is the short turnaround from Monday night to Sunday afternoon. Our trap games guide covers why rest does not show up in results the way people assume, and the market is not pricing it: books had this line between 12.5 and 13.5 on Tuesday.
Is there a better week to use them? Look-ahead boards put the Rams’ best remaining spot at Arizona in Week 10, priced only a few points higher than this one. That is a small premium for waiting through four weeks of everything that can happen in four weeks. Our expected value guide makes the case for spending a team in the week it is laying the most, and this is close enough to that week.
The ownership picture
The field has not touched the Rams. SurvivorGrid’s consensus board had them at 1.5 percent in Week 2, and they have not been among the leaders since. The teams the field has spent are San Francisco and Kansas City in Weeks 2 and 3, Baltimore and Minnesota in Week 4, and Cincinnati and Houston last week, which is why Kansas City is so lightly owned this week. Yahoo’s pick page had the Rams at 28.2 percent of Week 6 entries on Tuesday, New England at 18.2, Indianapolis at 14.5, San Francisco at 12.8 and Kansas City at 10.2. One projection we saw had the Rams closer to 36 percent by kickoff. Either way, the most popular pick is also the widest favorite by a distance, which is the easy case: you take the safe team and accept that a loss takes roughly a third of the pool with you.
If you want to zag, Buffalo is where the gap is: 4-1, about a 68 percent favorite at Las Vegas, and under 4 percent owned. The cost is a Week 11 home game against Miami priced in the mid-80s on look-ahead boards. That trade can make sense in a pool of a few thousand, not in an office pool.
New England and Indianapolis
New England is 3-2 and coming off a 45–17 home win over Las Vegas in which Drake Maye threw five touchdowns. The Jets are 2-3, Breece Hall has missed two games with a quad injury, and New York has lost 18 of its last 20 trips to Foxborough. The Patriots’ concerns are real but secondary: TreVeyon Henderson has a high ankle sprain and is expected to miss time, and left tackle Will Campbell and two starting cornerbacks are questionable.
Indianapolis is 2-3, and Tennessee is 0-5 with Cam Ward averaging under 200 passing yards a game and an offense yet to score more than 20 points. The Colts’ defense has given up a lot of yards per play, so this is a win-probability pick, not a margin pick. The appeal is that Indianapolis has no obviously better week ahead, while New England (Miami in Week 18) and San Francisco (Las Vegas in Week 9) both do.
Kansas City and the rest
By price, Kansas City is the second-best pick on the board: 4-0, off a bye, and favored by 8.5 over an 0-5 Chargers team whose quarterback has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. Two things argue against it. About 40 percent of the field already spent the Chiefs in Week 3, and for everyone else, Kansas City hosts Arizona in Week 11 at a look-ahead number well above this one.
San Francisco is a 7.5-point Monday night favorite over Washington with Deebo Samuel out for at least a couple of weeks and a better spot waiting in Week 9. Baltimore at Cleveland depends on Jackson, and the line has moved with each report.
Trap watch
Applying the framework from our look at trap games, here are Week 6’s structural risks, worst first. None of these is a prediction that a team will play badly.
- Ownership concentration on one team. The Rams carry 28 percent of entries and possibly more by Sunday. The pick is still correct on price. The risk is what happens to your pool if it misses, not whether it will.
- Quarterback news after your pool locks. Jackson (ankle) in Baltimore, Michael Penix Jr. (ribs) in Atlanta, Caleb Williams (hamstring) in Chicago and Baker Mayfield (thumb) in Tampa Bay were all unresolved on Tuesday, and three of those games are priced inside a touchdown.
- The Thursday game. Seattle at Denver kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, which locks first-kickoff pools before Friday’s injury reports, and Seattle quarterback Drew Lock was limited Monday with a forearm injury. At -3 this is a game to watch, not to pick.
The Week 6 read
The Rams are the pick in every pool size: the widest number on the board, almost nobody has spent them, and their next-best spot is only marginally better. New England is the alternative if you are saving Los Angeles for Week 10 on principle, and Indianapolis is the pick that costs you the least later. If you run several entries, our multiple entries guide covers splitting them across the Rams and the second tier without doubling up on the same risk.
Our own Elo-based ratings have the Rams at the top of this board too, in line with the market. That is not always the case, and the weeks it is not are the interesting ones. Join the waitlist to see where the two disagree once the app ships.
Survivor Caddy is the season planner we are building for exactly this decision: which teams you have spent, which are worth holding for later, and what this week’s pick costs you down the line. Join the waitlist to get it when it ships.
FAQ
Who should I pick in Week 6 of my 2026 survivor pool?
As of Tuesday, October 13, the Los Angeles Rams at home against Arizona are the widest favorite on the board, at roughly 13 points and about -900 on the moneyline. They are our top pick in every pool size. New England at home against the Jets is the alternative, and Indianapolis against Tennessee is the pick with the least future cost.
What will be the most popular survivor pick in Week 6?
The Rams. Yahoo's pick distribution had them at about 28 percent of Week 6 entries as of Tuesday, with New England near 18 percent, Indianapolis around 14 and San Francisco around 13. Kansas City sits near 10 percent despite being the second-widest favorite, because much of the field already used the Chiefs in Week 3.
Is Lamar Jackson playing in Week 6?
Unclear as of Tuesday. He has a left ankle sprain, missed Week 5, and was reported to have a real chance to play at Cleveland on Sunday. The Ravens are favored by 3.5 to 4.5 points depending on the book, and the number has moved with each update on his status.
Which teams are on bye in Week 6?
Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami and Minnesota. That is four teams off, the most of any week so far this season, and it takes two of the field's favorite early-season picks (Detroit and Minnesota) off the menu.
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