Week 7 NFL Survivor Recap (2026): Chicago Holds Off New England on Thursday Night
Top pick Houston lost in overtime and the Jets lost too. Alternative Minnesota won; the Baltimore and Monday night avoid calls held and Denver paid off.
October 23, 2026 · Updated October 27, 2026
Week 7 is complete, and the crowd’s week was decided by Sunday afternoon. Chicago opened it by beating New England on Thursday, and on Sunday five teams that were favored at our refresh lost, led by Houston, the widest favorite on the board, 27–21 in overtime to the Giants, and the Jets, 28–25 to Miami. Per Covers, those two losses took 559 of 1,275 live Circa Survivor entries out, and the early window as a whole removed 615. Dallas closed the week by beating Philadelphia 38–21 on Monday night, a game few survivor entries were in.
Thursday night
Chicago beat New England 30–24 at Soldier Field to open Week 7. The Bears were 53 percent at our refresh on September 29, a 1.5-point home favorite, and our grid was not repriced again before kickoff. By our Tuesday picks article the line had widened to Chicago -2.5 to -3, about -155. New England was 47 percent at our refresh. The favorite won, so this is not an upset.
Per ESPN’s play-by-play, Chicago led 20–14 at halftime after Caleb Williams hit Luther Burden III for a 24-yard touchdown with 14 seconds left in the half, and Drake Maye answered with a 48-yard touchdown pass to Rhamondre Stevenson on the final snap of the second quarter. Williams found Colston Loveland from 12 yards out in the third, Maye hit Eli Raridon from 30 to keep it at six, and Cairo Santos made it 30–21 with a 58-yard field goal with 1:34 left. Andy Borregales answered from 47 with 37 seconds left, and neither team scored again. The Bears had no turnovers to New England’s one and outgained the Patriots 405 yards to 380. Chicago is 5-2 and New England is 4-3.
The survivor lens. This game was nearly empty. SurvivorGrid’s consensus board, which averages Yahoo and ESPN pick distribution, had Chicago at 1.0 percent of Week 7 entries and New England at 0.2 when we checked it Friday morning. Boyd’s Bets, citing SurvivorGrid’s projections on October 21, also put the Bears near 1 percent. We have seen no published Circa Survivor count for either team this week.
Sunday
Twelve games were played Sunday, one in Paris, and five teams that were favored at our refresh lost, including the two most popular picks on most boards. All prices are from our refresh on September 29; our grid was not repriced again before kickoff, so these are look-ahead numbers, and we note where the line had moved by our October 20 picks article.
The upsets, ranked by the loser’s price.
- Houston, 68 percent, lost 27–21 in overtime at home to the Giants. The Giants were 32 percent at our refresh. The Texans were -9.5 by Tuesday and Covers reported them closing at -10.5, the widest number on the board. Per ESPN’s play-by-play, C.J. Stroud hit Xavier Hutchinson from 3 yards with 52 seconds left to tie it at 21, and Devin Singletary ran 30 yards for the winning touchdown in overtime. The Giants outgained Houston 420 yards to 237, and neither team turned the ball over.
- San Francisco, 67 percent, lost 29–20 at Atlanta. The Falcons were 33 percent at our refresh; the 49ers were -4.5 by Tuesday. Per ESPN, San Francisco led 14–3 early in the second quarter, Michael Penix Jr. threw three touchdown passes, and the 49ers turned the ball over four times to Atlanta’s none. It was San Francisco’s first loss of the season.
- Baltimore, 62 percent, lost 35–13 at home to Cincinnati. The Bengals were 38 percent at our refresh, and the Ravens were -2.5 to -3.5 by Tuesday. Per ESPN’s box score, Tyler Huntley took every Baltimore pass attempt; Lamar Jackson, whose status our picks article flagged as unsettled, did not record one. Joe Burrow threw four touchdown passes and Cincinnati scored 35 unanswered points after trailing 13–0.
- The Jets, 56 percent, lost 28–25 at home to Miami. The Dolphins were 44 percent at our refresh and the Jets were -4.5 to -5 by Tuesday. Per ESPN, Malik Willis hit Caleb Douglas for a 63-yard touchdown with 4:44 left to put Miami up 11, and a Geno Smith touchdown pass and two-point conversion got the Jets within three. It was Miami’s first win of the season.
- Tennessee, 55 percent, lost 27–24 at home to Cleveland. Cleveland had become a 1.5-point favorite by Tuesday, so by the later line this was a favorite winning. By our recorded price it is an upset, and we file it that way. Per ESPN, Andre Szmyt kicked a 32-yard field goal as time expired, his second game-winner on the final snap in as many weeks.
The favorites that held. Denver (76 percent) won 30–16 at Arizona, the Rams (74) won 35–21 at Las Vegas, Seattle (60) beat Kansas City 20–3 at home on Sunday night, Minnesota (56) beat Indianapolis 16–10 at home, and Detroit (56) beat Green Bay 20–17 at home on a Jake Bates field goal as time expired. Pittsburgh (56) beat New Orleans 16–10 at the Stade de France in Paris, a neutral-site game. Tampa Bay (53) won 43–13 at Carolina; the Panthers had become 3- to 3.5-point favorites by Tuesday, so by the later line that one was an upset too. Baker Mayfield, whose thumb was on our trap watch, started and threw a touchdown pass.
The survivor lens. SurvivorGrid’s consensus board, which averages Yahoo and ESPN pick distribution, finished Week 7 with Houston at 25.6 percent of entries, Minnesota at 19.1, Denver at 13.4, the Jets at 12.3, Cleveland at 7.6, San Francisco at 6.0 and Carolina at 5.3. Adding Baltimore and Tennessee at a fraction of a percent each, a little under half of consensus entries were on a team that lost Sunday. ESPN’s Week 7 survivor column, written Wednesday, had Houston and Minnesota at 12 percent of ESPN Survivor entries each and the Jets at 11, with 4 percent of ESPN’s original entries alive entering the week.
Per Covers, 303 of the 1,275 live Circa Survivor entries were on Houston and 256 were on the Jets, and with 54 more on Carolina, 615 entries were eliminated in the early window, nearly half the field. Covers reported the Vikings as the most popular Circa pick without giving a count, and said 35 entries (32 on Pittsburgh, 3 on Chicago) had already advanced before the 1 p.m. ET kickoffs. Every late-window favorite won, so the Circa field should go into Monday night somewhere near 660; that last number is our arithmetic, not a report.
Monday night
Dallas beat Philadelphia 38–21 at Lincoln Financial Field to close Week 7. Philadelphia was 59 percent at our refresh on September 29, a 3-point home favorite, and Dallas was 41; our grid was not repriced again before kickoff. By our October 20 picks article the number had flipped, with Dallas a 4.5-point road favorite at about -218 and Philadelphia starting Tanner McKee with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve. Per DraftKings via ESPN’s game page, the line closed at Dallas -4.5. By our recorded price this is an upset; by the later line it was a favorite winning. We file it by our recorded price, the same way we filed Tennessee on Sunday.
Per ESPN’s play-by-play, Philadelphia led 7–3, 14–10 and 21–20, the last of those on a Makai Lemon touchdown catch with 5:44 left in the third quarter. Dak Prescott answered with his third touchdown pass, a 16-yarder to CeeDee Lamb, ran in the two-point conversion, and Dallas scored the last 18 points. Javonte Williams ran for 155 yards on 25 carries, and the Cowboys outgained the Eagles 416 yards to 321 with no turnovers to Philadelphia’s one. Dallas is 3-4 and Philadelphia is 2-5.
The survivor lens. SurvivorGrid’s consensus board finished Week 7 with Dallas at 4.0 percent of entries and Philadelphia at 0.1. ESPN’s Week 7 survivor column had the Cowboys at 4 percent of ESPN Survivor entries and did not list the Eagles. Per Covers, 660 Circa Survivor entries were alive with only Monday night left, with no count published for either team. Circa’s contests page still showed 660 on Tuesday morning, consistent with no entry having been spent on Philadelphia, though we cannot confirm the page had refreshed after the game.
How our picks did
Our Week 7 picks article had a bad Sunday. The top pick, Houston at home against the Giants, lost 27–21 in overtime; we called the Texans the pick in most pools at -9.5, the only near-double-digit favorite on the board. The save-your-studs play, the Jets against Miami, lost 28–25 to a team that had been 0-5. The alternative, Minnesota against Indianapolis, won 16–10. Two of our three recommended teams lost, the same line as Week 6.
The rest of the article held up better. The avoid list said to leave Baltimore alone until Jackson’s status was settled; Huntley took every pass attempt and the Ravens lost by 22. Thursday’s avoid call cost nothing, since Chicago won and neither team was ours. Everything priced at a field goal or less (Seattle, Pittsburgh, Cleveland) won, so passing on those cost nothing either. Denver, the lightly used option we raised for large pools, won 30–16, and the Rams, our substitute for anyone who had spent Minnesota, won 35–21. San Francisco, which we said to hold rather than spend at -4.5, lost, so holding was right this week for a reason we did not see coming. Monday night’s Dallas-Philadelphia game was on the avoid list, and Dallas won 38–21; passing on a game whose favorite had flipped since our refresh cost nothing, since the Cowboys were a 4 percent team on SurvivorGrid’s board and every pick we did recommend had already been graded by then.
In the trap watch, the first item was ownership concentration on Houston, and it was the one that mattered: per Covers, the Texans took out 303 Circa entries and the Jets another 256. The quarterback item cut both ways. Jackson did not play and Baltimore lost; Mayfield did play and Tampa Bay won. Being right about Baltimore does not offset being wrong about Houston, and flagging a risk does not change the result.
What this week teaches
The biggest number on the board is still a number. Houston was 68 percent at our refresh and roughly 80 at the close, and a favorite priced there loses about one week in five. Taking the chalk every week stacks those odds on top of each other, and the expected value guide is about treating the price as a probability rather than a verdict.
Cheap is not the same as safe. We recommended the Jets because spending them cost the least later. Future value only pays off for entries that survive, and per Covers 20 percent of the Circa field spent its entry on a 56 percent team. The complete strategy guide ranks surviving this week ahead of flexibility next week for exactly this reason.
Unresolved news is a reason to wait, not to guess. Baltimore’s quarterback was unsettled on Tuesday, and by Sunday he did not play. Leaving a 62 percent team alone until the report was in cost nothing, because the board had other options at a similar price. The trap games guide treats information timing as the structural risk it is.
A look-ahead price is a snapshot, not a line. Philadelphia was a 59 percent home favorite at our refresh on September 29 and a 4.5-point home underdog by kickoff on Monday night; Jalen Hurts went on injured reserve in between. A pool that locks on Tuesday and a pool that locks at kickoff are pricing different games, and a number recorded weeks ahead is a starting point for your plan, not the price you are paying when you submit.
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