Week 9 NFL Survivor Pool Picks (2026): Seattle Is the Widest Number and Almost Nobody Has Used It

November 3, 2026

Week 8 went about as well as a week with half the field on one team can go. Cincinnati needed overtime to beat Tennessee, Jacksonville and New England won comfortably, and the loss that mattered was Dallas, our own save-your-studs pick, which led 24–10 in the fourth quarter and lost 33–30 in overtime to Arizona. Per Covers, 610 of 660 live Circa Survivor entries advance to Week 9. The Week 8 recap has the full accounting.

Week 9 has one team priced near 85 percent, two more near 80, and a Thursday game whose number is being driven by a quarterback depth chart. All numbers below are as of Monday and Tuesday morning, November 2 and 3.

The quick verdict

• Top pick: Seattle at home against Arizona. About -10.5 to -11.5, roughly -700 on the moneyline. Market-based estimates put the Seahawks between 83 and 88 percent, and Kalshi had them at 83 on Monday. It is the widest number on the board, and it belongs to a team most live entries have not spent.
• Alternative: Kansas City at home against the Jets. About -10 to -10.5, roughly -500. Kalshi had the Chiefs at 81 percent. The catch is that about 40 percent of consensus entries used Kansas City in Week 3, and those entries are still alive.
• The equivalent if you spent the Chiefs: San Francisco at home against Las Vegas. About -9.5, roughly -500. The 49ers are 6-1 and coming off a bye. Roughly a third of the field used them in Week 2 or Week 7.
• Save your studs: Seattle is also this play. The Seahawks are 4-4. Low future cost is a reason to prefer a team among equals, not to lower the bar, and this week the widest number and the cheapest team to spend are the same team.
• Avoid: Jacksonville on Thursday (the number is fine, the timing is not), Cincinnati in Madrid at a field goal, Monday night’s Bills-Vikings game, and everything priced below 70 percent.

The Week 9 slate

Fifteen games, with Pittsburgh and Tennessee on bye. Lines are DraftKings via ESPN as of Monday, with ranges where other books differed on Monday and Tuesday. Cincinnati and Atlanta play in Madrid at 9:30 a.m. ET.

The top of the board

• Cardinals at Seahawks: Seattle -10.5 to -11.5, about -700
• Jets at Chiefs: Kansas City -10 to -10.5, about -500 to -520
• Raiders at 49ers: San Francisco -9.5, about -500
• Jaguars at Ravens (Thursday night): Jacksonville -8.5 to -9.5, about -410 to -430
• Lions at Dolphins: Detroit -6.5 to -7.5, about -350 to -375

The 5 to 6 tier

• Cowboys at Colts: Dallas -5.5 to -6, about -250 to -265
• Buccaneers at Bears (Sunday night): Chicago -5.5, about -238
• Rams at Commanders: Los Angeles -5.5, about -218 to -245
• Texans at Chargers: Houston -4.5 to -5.5, about -218

Field goals and coin flips

• Bengals at Falcons (Madrid): Cincinnati -3 to -3.5, about -166 to -170
• Broncos at Panthers: Denver -2.5 to -3, about -152 to -155
• Giants at Eagles: New York -3 to -3.5, about -155
• Packers at Patriots: New England -2.5 to -3, about -148 to -151
• Browns at Saints: New Orleans -2.5, about -142
• Bills at Vikings (Monday night): Buffalo -2.5 to -3.5, about -152 to -155

Why Seattle

Start with the price. At -700, Seattle is laying more than Cincinnati did last week. Arizona is 3-5. The Cardinals beat Dallas on Sunday with Gardner Minshew II taking every pass attempt, and per Yahoo’s Monday report they have benched Jacoby Brissett and will start Minshew again. Michael Wilson, who caught the touchdown that forced overtime in Dallas, says he is playing with broken ribs, and Kendrick Bourne is expected to miss the rest of the season.

Now the honest part. Seattle is 4-4 and lost 34–17 at home to Chicago on Monday night, converting one of eleven third downs. Left tackle Charles Cross missed that game with a high ankle sprain, and this week is the first game reporters have named as a possible return. None of that changes the ordering on the board. It does mean this is a matchup number more than a team number, and our strategy guide is clear that win probability comes first regardless of how the favorite got there.

The ownership picture

Week 9 pick distribution had not been published as of Tuesday morning, so this is a read on usage rather than a count. By the consensus boards we have cited each week, Seattle carried about 11 percent of entries in Week 3 and lost, so those entries are gone, and only about 4 percent of the field used the Seahawks when they won in Week 4. Kansas City won as a 40 percent pick in Week 3, the largest surviving block of used entries on the board. San Francisco was near 29 percent in Week 2 and 6 percent in Week 7. Jacksonville was near a quarter of the field in Week 1 and 19.5 percent last week. Expect Seattle to lead this week’s distribution by a wide margin, with Kansas City and San Francisco splitting the entries that have one of them left.

Kansas City, San Francisco and the rest of the tier

Kansas City is 5-2 and coming off a 28–24 loss at Denver in which Patrick Mahomes threw for 321 yards, so there is no quarterback question. The Jets are 2-6 with Geno Smith starting and just gave up 38 points in a win over Las Vegas. If you have the Chiefs, this is the second-best price on the board.

San Francisco is the equivalent for anyone who does not. The 49ers are 6-1 and coming off their bye. Read Wednesday’s injury report: Christian McCaffrey was diagnosed with a mild hamstring strain before the bye, and CBS’s table as of late October still listed him, Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa as questionable. Las Vegas is 4-4 and scored 38 on Sunday with Kirk Cousins throwing three touchdown passes, so this is not the softest opponent at the top of the board.

Detroit at Miami, at -7 and roughly 74 to 79 percent, is the option if you have spent all three teams above it. The Dolphins are 1-6. Sportsbook Review says to hold the Lions because they play New England in Germany next week. That is a schedule fact, not a reason to think they play worse this week, and our expected value guide would rather you spend a team in the week it is laying the most. Dallas at Indianapolis sits at 70 percent, below the bar we set last week, and the Cowboys have lost as a favorite twice in four weeks. Pass.

Trap watch

Applying the framework from our look at trap games, here are Week 9’s structural risks, worst first. None of these is a prediction that a team will play badly.

• The Thursday game, and the number driving it. Jacksonville at Baltimore kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, which locks first-kickoff pools before the week’s injury reports. The line opened near -7.5 and moved to -9.5 because Baltimore is down to its third quarterback: Lamar Jackson needs thumb surgery and is headed to injured reserve, Tyler Huntley is reported to be out for an extended period with turf toe, and Joe Fagnano, the expected starter, has an ankle issue of his own. The Jaguars’ price is close to the 49ers’. The problem is committing on Thursday to a number that depends on an opponent’s depth chart, when nearly half the field has used them anyway.
• Ownership concentration on Seattle. If Seattle lands anywhere near the share Cincinnati carried last week, a loss would reshape most pools. Some of the crowd will fade the Seahawks because they just lost by 17 at home. The useful signal is whether the ownership actually drops, not the story.
• Injury news after your pool locks. Arizona’s move to Minshew is already made. Still open: Cross’s ankle in Seattle, McCaffrey’s hamstring and the rest of San Francisco’s report, and whether Fagnano makes it to Thursday. Detroit also lost linebacker Jack Campbell to a neck injury that kept him hospitalized into Monday.

The Week 9 read

Seattle is the pick in most pools: the widest number on the board, a 4-4 team you will not miss later, and an opponent that just changed quarterbacks. Kansas City is the alternative if you still have the Chiefs, San Francisco if you do not, and Detroit if you have spent all three. If you run several entries, our multiple entries guide covers spreading them across Seattle and one of the -500 teams.

Our own Elo-based ratings see the same three teams at the top of the board this week, in the same order. The weeks the ratings and the market disagree are the ones worth knowing about, and joining the waitlist is how you will see them once the app ships.

Survivor Caddy is the season planner we are building for exactly this decision: which teams you have spent, which are worth holding for later, and what this week’s pick costs you down the line. Join the waitlist to get it when it ships.

Plan the rest of your season in the app.

Get updates

Survivor Caddy keeps every pool and entry straight: used teams, upcoming picks, and the deadlines that sneak up on you. Free for the 2026 season on the App Store. Prefer email? Leave yours and we'll send the occasional update, nothing more.